So I was bored tonight and stumbled upon this. Oh how I wish I could read from a clip board. I guess you don’t have to know anything about weather or have a personality if you’re pretty and just reading the weather on TV.

Every time I tell someone that I’m a meteorologist, I ALWAYS get the response “So you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job?” I swear to you, EVERY time. I laugh it off but it annoys me.

The accuracy of weather forecasting has improved immensely over the past 20 years. Meteorologists would use Velcro icons and dry erase boards to deliver their 5-day. They had rudimentary computer modeling systems that were good at best. Anything past 4 days was a guess, mostly based on the climate (average weather for that day).

Nowadays, with advances in computer modeling like the creation of WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model), our forecasts have improved a ton. For a forecast of 1-3 days, a good meteorologist can forecast with an 80% accuracy. Days 4 and 5, it decreases to about 65-70%. After day 5, the accuracy is at 50%. After day 7, the ‘forecast’ is really nothing more than climate averages.

There are some things to remember about forecasting too. Even though we’ve made great advances in computer modeling, there is still many improvements that can be made. The way computer models are initialized is by collecting data from radiosonde (weather balloons). The data that is collected is then placed on a map. The surface of the Earth is then giving gridpoints. Data and equations are plopped on each gridpoint and the model is allowed to run. (Meteorologist reading this — I know this is a water-downed version of everything). While we can improve the data going into the models (and there have been major improvements), models will never be perfect. It takes a meteorologist to interpret what the model is putting out.

Another challenge we have is forecasting for an extended area. Forecasting for New Haven is different than  forecasting for Hartford. In the same respect, forecasting for DC is different than Ocean City, MD. However, at the end of each weathercast when you see the 7-Day Forecast, the icons/temperatures you see are averages of the entire state or region. Snow in Hartford may be rain in New Haven. Sunny skies in Ocean City may be rain in DC. The reason meteorologists say “50% chance of rain” is partly because some of the viewing area will see rain, and some won’t.

As I’ve written before, the difference between a good meteorologist and a great one is the ability to learn from his or her mistakes. Everyone busts on a forecast from time to time, but to truly be good, you must learn from it.

Forecast for tonight? Dark.

The snow has moved in, officially starting in Danbury at 11:41am and probably not going to be ending until the early morning hours tomorrow. I’ll let you know tomorrow just how much snow Danbury gets… my early estimate is 9.6 inches.

This should be fun. I am supposed to be packing but instead I’m looking for my snow clothes.

Here’s my new forecast video…

As always, feel free to check out more of my videos here

Friday looks to be really messy. Lots of snow in a very short period of time. Here at the station, we’re thinking about 6-12″ statewide, with possibly up to 18″ in some places.

This isn’t a classic Nor’easter… but could bring just as much snow. And before I forget, who is dreaming of a white Christmas? You may just get your wish.

I am part of the Eastern US Wx forums. Recently I posted my videos so that I could get some feedback. I got some great feedback from many people.

Work on my hand movements – check
Work on my breathing techniques – check
Work on my fidgeting and head bobbing – check
Work on being “too smiley” – check

I received some really good compliments too. Many people said they’d watch me. Others said I show great enthusiasm for the weather. A few said they liked the bald head. But one in particular didn’t…

I received one post from “Nikolai”. He critiqued me – and he held nothing back. Below is what he said…

You kind of babble too much so you sound incoherent… also, you need hair. This will sound kind of bitchy, but you kind of look like you have cancer without it, and that’s not something people want to see in a newscaster (I know that sounds bad, but let’s be honest–it’s true). It’s not like you’re completely unfortunate looking, either–you would be kind of attractive if you had hair.

So yeah, grow hair (if you’re balding already, invest in hair plugs–they’re essential for male newscasters) and get some meds to calm you down. Uppers tend to have that effect on my friends, although a drink or two does the trick for me, so I’d probably recommend that. But yeah… kind of unfortunate right now but if you get some minor work done and get the nerves under control, you’d be good.

Oh, & re: the smile–you might want to get veneers done. Your teeth are fine for normal people or news people from places that don’t matter, but either naturally perfect teeth or veneers are the standard for major media markets, at least from what I’ve seen. That isn’t a dig on your teeth–they’re not bad… just not perfect, and people really do like perfect teeth.

Thanks Nik… I have never been called a cancer patient so that is a new one. I’ve tried to grow hair… it doesn’t work. All I got from the Hair Club for Men was a receipt for $2,500. Rogaine and Propecia haven’t worked. So here is where I am. Bald and freaking proud of it! Nik also suggested that I calm down a bit, maybe have a couple drinks. Suppose I get an morning job where I have to be there at 3 AM, should I have a couple of shots of JD before I go on the air? Thanks but no thanks. Finally, he suggests I get braces. I have perfectly straight teeth so what are veneers going to accomplish besides put me out of $3,000? Again, thanks but no thanks.

I am proud of the person I am… I don’t need to be fake to get far in life. Nik’s suggestions were “standard for major markets”. Well consider me a change for that standard.

PS. I will be posting a new forecasting video tomorrow. Check it out…