I watched all of the presidential debates this fall. After each one, I felt that McCain was on the attack and Obama was calm under pressure. Throughout the debates however, I kept feeling like I had heard everything before…

Maybe I had?

I just flipped through the stations and noticed the game was on. Phillies were up 3-2 against the Rays. I heard today at work that this was the lowest rated World Series in history…

I guess I can believe that since I’m now watching Mythbusters.

As a senior student studying the meteorology, I have had to take many (over 70 semester hours) of weather classes. They range from Intro to Meteorology as a freshman to Geophysical Hydrodynamics as a senior. A few of those classes did dive into the topic of climate change. I have studied, in depth, the topic and really feel knowledgable about the situation. I have never claimed to be a doctor, nor have I done my own research, and I’ve never looked at things with a closed mind.

Global warming is a real phenomenon. The temperature has risen in the past few centuries. Why, well that is the big question that I’m going to try to tackle.

Al Gore, congrats on the Noble but I disagree with your position. You see, Al thinks that because hurricanes are strengthening, wildfires are more common, and Arctic Ice is melting that it must be because of humans. Al points to CO₂ and methane as greenhouse gases. Yes, the industries of today do contribute massive amounts of CO₂ to the atmosphere, but how much is that contributing to global warming? Al… question for you. Would you politicize a completely natural phenomenon for political benefit?

I am one person who doesn’t believe that global warming isn’t directly linked to air pollution or human sources. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to be breathing in an 18-wheeler’s fumes, but I don’t think those fumes are causing the temperature increase. At the height of the industrial revolutions, before clean coal and clean fuel laws were enacted, 1900s and 1960s saw an below average temperatures. Decreased sun activity was to blame. In 600s, the Earth saw below average temperatures, then saw temperatures rise in the 800s. 1300 was the Earth saw “The Little Ice-Age”, but by 1400 we saw temperatures back to normal.

After all of these below average spells, the Earth has rebounded. The Romans didn’t say “Hey, it’s getting cold out, let’s burn all the forests in Italy to try to reverse it.” What about in the 1300s? Did people in the middle ages realize that they were in a mini ice-age? (side note: The Medieval period was warmer than it is now…)There was NO human activity that can account for any rise of temperatures before 1800. 

That is why I am not a believer in grouping global warming with “going green”. I think the effects of CO₂ on the overall temperature is 0.0000001%. It all has to do with the normal, cyclic nature of the Earth’s temperature. 

Just yesterday in my Air Pollution and Climate Change class (which I feel is totally misnamed), the teacher presented this graph. I really had to bit my tongue not to get into a discussion with him. This is a graph of the ice core temperatures from now to 40,000 years ago. As you can see, temperatures fluctuated greatly before 13,000 years ago. But, after our last great Ice Age, something happened. And it wasn’t human related. The dramatic increase in temperature can only be attributed to sun activity and the normal Earth cycle. Mr. Gore has no explanation for that… Even the temperatures now. If you were to draw a line with the median value, the line would have a positive slope (denoting a decrease in overall temperature). 

Less than a month ago, Dr. Climate Change (who I won’t refer to by name) at the Capital Weather Gang posted a blog titled “Climate Change Is Real, OK?” (yea, he’s opening minded right?”.  In the post, he writes

“But, I do agree with the IPCC conclusion that odds are about 90% that anthropogenic (man-made) influences are and will continue to be the principal cause of warming. I emphatically take issue with so called “deniers” who take the position - with seemingly a 100% level of certainty - that human activities are not an important factor. That attitude is unassailably faith-based (no religious connotation intended or implied) where evidence to the contrary has no place.”

He goes on to say

“One can make a reasonably sounding argument that global warming could be due to natural fluctuations in the climate system (e.g., cycles in ocean/atmosphere circulations) and/or external influences (e.g., sunspot activity, volcano eruptions). However, while these mechanisms are subjectively plausible (especially to non-scientists) there is no objective, scientifically sound basis to conclude they can account primarily (let alone exclusively as some argue) for the observed global warming.”

I commented on the post with exactly the information I presented today, only to be called “closed minded” and advised that if I don’t believe in the prospect of global warming, I “will not do well” in grad school. Thanks for the advice.

For the next post… I’ll explain my idea of global cooling.

I’d like to thank Geoff for all the help that he has given me with the site. Not only did he essentially set the entire thing up, but he does weekly ‘updates’ to the site. Just added today: sitemap! 

Geoff just gave me a shout out on his blog… Thanks Geoff! I think I’ve reached the peak of my stardom. 

He says I’m a “younger, smarter, and better looking…” version of him. Younger yes, better looking arguable, smarter not even close. Geoff is such a wealth of knowledge. I guess I didn’t realize how lucky I was to have the opportunity to work at WTNH. It’s not just weather that he knows. Anything from computer programming to politics, I’d want Geoff on my side during a debate. 

I won’t argue with him when he says I’d take his job for a fraction of the price.  I’ll be happy with any job I get, but for now I’m happy working with Geoff for free. Hey do you think they could double my pay? I’m worth it right?

Thank again!

The more I watch TV, the more I can feel the tension mounting in the election. Today Sarah Palin was speaking and referred to Joe the Plumber asking Obama if his economic plans were socialist.

Let me define socialism (according to dictionary.com):

1) a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole
2) (in Marxist theory) the stage following capitalism in the transition of a society to communism, characterized by the imperfect implementation of collectivist principles.

Obama said in 2001 that he would like to redistribute some of the tax money back to the ones that need it the most. While he didn’t implicitly say so, I think he was talking about social programs that we already have — think WELFARE. Isn’t that what welfare is though??

Anyway, everyone is sooooo stuck on that word ’socialism’. What is ironic to me though is Bush IS practicing socialism in the way that he/the government is handling the Economic crisis on Wall Street. Please re-read definition #1 if you don’t believe me.

I don’t know if Obama wants to move from capitalism to socialism (my guess is no) but should he want that, George W. not only built the foundation, he finished the house.

Sarah Palin is the perfect example of why people don’t get married on the first date. Let me explain. As a nobody (and you can argue all you want with me about that), Sarah Palin was going to bring a new “freshness” to the Republican Party. I’m sure the decision to choose her as VP had nothing to do with thinking women are dumb enough to fall for the “since the Democrats hung Hillary out to dry, vote for the McCain/GENERIC WOMAN ticket”.

Sure America, including SNL, took Palin and made her into a rock star. But as in any good celebrity marriage, it is starting to get ugly.

First there is Palin spending $150,000 on clothing for herself and her family. I agree with Geoff Fox when he says the GOP tries to make Palin into a next door neighbor; a hockey mom from Wasilla. I guess they didn’t realize not too many neighbors have $150,000 clothing budgets. Palin struck back to critics by saying that those giving her crap about the money are sexist and men wouldn’t have to face the scrutiny she has faced. Really? You’re going to go there? The best part about this situation is the purchase could have violated campaign laws by using election money for ‘personal use’ — a reform that was pushed for by McCain himself.

Palin has also decided to ‘go rogue’ and has started to disregard advice from those whose only job is to advise her. This has created many tense situations on the campaign trail. Now that she is in the limelight, could she be possibly setting herself up for an Obama-esqe run for president? If you think about it though, Obama really wasn’t known until his speech at the Democratic Convention four years ago.

Palin doesn’t want to be labeled as anything that isn’t truly her (which I don’t blame her). That is why John McCain made a horrible decision in choosing Palin. Don’t choose someone who is unheard of, regardless if she has more executive experience or can see Russia from her bedroom window. Discovery Channel has it all wrong. For McCain’s campaign, Palin has turned into their “Deadliest Catch”.

All that being said, don’t marry on the first date… unless she’s über hot.

Today I double checked my voter registration. I’m not going to be voting in Connecticut like a lot of my friends. Rather, I’ll be voting in Ohio (absentee) where theoretically my vote will “count” for more. Granted I’m only voting once… so why does my vote count for more?

In a perfect system, my one Ohio vote would weigh the same as one Connecticut vote. But in reality, due to the electoral process, my vote could decide the election. That is a little bit of pressure for me.

Lots of people say that one vote doesn’t matter but I did a little research on issues passed on one vote…

BY ONE VOTE — Thomas Jefferson was elected president over Aaron Burr after the vote went to the House of Representatives

BY ONE VOTE — George W. Bush was elected president over Al Gore after the vote went to the Supreme Court

BY ONE VOTE — Andrew Johnson was acquitted on impeachment charges after the required vote failed to get a two-thirds majority

September 30 was the turning for Obama in Ohio. That was the day after the first debate when Obama clearly dominated McCain (unless you work for Fox News). According to Yahoo! Polls, Sept 30th Obama tied McCain in Ohio, 45.3% each. By Oct 7th, he had already built a 4% lead, 48.9% to 44.9%. As of this writing, Obama has a 6.1% lead, 49.9% to 43.8%.

Obama has great momentum going into the last 10 days before the election. McCain’s campaign seems to be unraveling more each day.

Here is my prediction for Election 2008…

Obama McCain
356     155

We’ll see how it turns out…